Grains Report 06/25/19

Crop Progress
Date 23-Jun 16-Jun 2018 Avg
Cotton Planted 96 89 99 98
Cotton Squaring 30 19 31 28
Cotton Setting Bolls 3 6 5
Corn Planted 96 92 100 100
Corn Emerged 89 79 100 99
Soybeans Planted 85 77 100 97
Soybeans Emerged 71 55 94 91
Sorghum Planted 84 69 94 91
Sorghum Headed 17 15 20 20
Rice Emerged 97 94 100 100
Rice Headed 5 6 8
Peanuts Planted 97 94 99 99
Peanuts Pegging 34 16 25 24
Oats Emerged 97 94 100 100
Oats Headed 43 33 65 68
Winter Wheat Headed 94 89 98 99
Winter Wheat Harvested 15 8 39 34
Spring Wheat Headed 7 2 30 29
Barley Emerged 97 92 99 99
Barley Headed 9 2 25 30
Sunflowers Planted 85 68 90 89

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 4 13 33 45 5
Cotton Last Week 4 11 36 42 7
Cotton Last Year 1 18 39 35 7

Corn This Week 3 9 32 48 8
Corn Last Week 2 8 31 52 7
Corn Last Year 1 4 18 58 19

Soybeans This Week 2 8 36 47 7
Soybeans Last Week
Soybeans Last Year 1 4 22 58 15

Sorghum This Week 0 3 25 61 11
Sorghum Last Week
Sorghum Last Year 3 9 32 51 5

Rice This Week 1 6 27 52 14
Rice Last Week 1 6 30 51 12
Rice Last Year 0 5 25 57 13

Oats This Week 2 5 29 56 8
Oats Last Week 2 4 28 58 8
Oats Last Year 3 3 22 59 13

Peanuts This Week 1 4 28 62 5
Peanuts Last Week 1 6 29 59 5
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 31 58 7

Barley This Week 1 4 23 64 8
Barley Last Week 1 6 17 63 13
Barley Last Year 1 3 13 65 18

Winter Wheat This Week 3 8 28 46 15
Winter Wheat Last Week 2 7 27 51 13
Winter Wheat Last Year 15 19 29 28 9

Spring Wheat This Week 0 3 22 67 8
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 1 21 69 8
Spring Wheat Last Year 2 3 18 63 14

Pastures and Ranges This Week 2 6 24 54 14
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 1 5 23 56 15
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 6 14 31 41 8

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jun 24
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 20, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/20/2019 06/13/2019 06/21/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 857 0 0 196 98
CORN 617,740 678,024 1,540,434 41,474,867 44,221,990
FLAXSEED 24 0 0 24 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 399 299 998
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 112,816 3,669 336 1,582,174 4,761,677
SOYBEANS 682,155 680,370 516,711 36,331,583 48,824,725
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 406,386 382,371 364,312 1,225,725 1,158,241
Total 1,819,978 1,744,434 2,422,192 80,614,868 98,967,777
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ Table of China May Oilseed, Vegoil, Grain Imports
Imports of Selected Oilseeds, Vegetable Oils and Grains
May Jan-May
Tons %Change Tons %Change
Wheat 189,993 -69.1% 1,344,971 -12.4%
Corn 746,520 -1.1% 2,392,371 41.4%
Soybean 7,361,975 -24.0% 31,751,054 -12.2%
Soyoil 54,477 -7.4% 194,560 92.6%
Palm Oil 610,496 49.2% 2,801,606 37.2%
The above table is based on selected data provided by China’s General Administration of Customs.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher as disease reports began to surface again for Midwestern crops. USDA showed lower crop condition ratings in part due to disease pressures. The weather is drier for harvesting in the southern Great Plains and the harvest is fully underway. High yields are being reported for the HRW crop and this is as it should be as the region saw a lot of rain during the growing season. It is finally turning drier in the Midwest so the Winter Wheat harvest should get underway soon. Yields might not be so impressive in this area due to the extreme weather seen over the Winter that probably caused Winterkill in addition to the rains that are causing diseases to break out. Protein levels for both HRW and SRW crops should be lower than normal due to the rains. Meanwhile, rains have improved in the northern Great Plains and into Canada and growing conditions for the Spring Wheat crops are improving. Additional rains were forecast for Canada over the weekend, and beneficial rains were reported. Conditions are also reported to be improving in Spring Wheat areas in Russia as temperatures are expected to moderate and some showers are expected. It is still hot and dry near the Black Sea so crops in these areas of Russia and Ukraine are being hurt. It is harvest time for Winter crops in these areas as well. Conditions are reported to be very hot in Europe and kernel fill could be affected.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see light to moderate precipitation off and on all week. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 555, 557, and 564 July. Support is at 529, 516, and 514 July, with resistance at 544, 551, and 556 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 450, 445, and 444 July, with resistance at 474, 481, and 487 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 533 and 510 July. Support is at 535, 532, and 528 July, and resistance is at 546, 553, and 560 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday on ideas of good progress and condition of the crop. These ideas were confirmed last night by USDA. There were some big rains near Houston, but crops there were in flood and are heading now, so the rains were termed beneficial by one producer. Funds and other speculators were the best sellers. The better crop development has created some selling interest for the last of the old crop Rice in producer storage. There can be little doubt now that total planted area will be somewhat reduced, especially in Mississippi and Arkansas. Just how much the planted area will be reduced seems to be a guess at this point. California is reporting good conditions now with hot and drier weather. The crop was planted a little late and the crop condition ratings have not been as strong as is normally seen in the state. The crop there is probably about a week behind normal development. Mostly stable prices are reported in Asia. Indian price trends in the near future are a guess as the monsoon has been late to arrive, but the monsoon is active now in central and southern parts of the country. There are forecasts for reduced rains from the monsoon this year implying lower yields and lower overall production potential.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms on Tuesday and again over the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1072 and 1051 July. Support is at 1109, 1106, and 1103 July, with resistance at 1138, 1146, and 1156 July.

DJ Export Prices For Fragrant Thai Rice Falls On New Supplies
0248 GMT – Export prices for fragrant rice from Thailand, the world’s largest exporter, have fallen 1% amid new supply of off-season product entering the market, notes the USDA. But it adds prices for most grades of Thai rice remain unchanged as year-to-date exports through June 9 were down 25% from a year earlier. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher and Oats were lower. The market was starting to get ready for the crop reports that were out last night and ill be released on Friday. USDA showed progress about as anticipated by the trade, but the crop condition was less than expected by the trade. The crop condition could support futures today. USDA will issue its quarterly stocks reports and planted area reports on Friday, and there is some concern that USDA will not be able to provide a good estimate on planted area due to all of the weather related delays this year. USDA is likely to show less planted area over time and there is also potential for yields to be cut further. The crop is planted for all intents and purposes and much of the crop has been planted in the last few weeks and is very short and very far behind normal progress. There is a chance that cold weather this Fall will catch much of the crop before it is mature and even more bushels could be lost. There is a long way to go before that can be a consideration, and the weather outlook for the coming week seems to be improved as warmer and drier conditions are forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 474 and 484 July. Support is at 437, 431, and 421 July, and resistance is at 451, 454, and 457 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 262 July. Support is at 264, 263, and 261 July, and resistance is at 276, 278, and 285 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher and Soybean Oil was lower. The weather is a feature in this market as it has been for Corn. USDA showed less than expected planting progress and lower than expected crop condition ratings in its reports last night. The planting of Soybeans has been just as difficult as planting has been for Corn. Producers still have time to get the Soybeans in the ground as most indicate they will still plant this week and possibly into the Independence Day holiday in the US on July 4th. That should be it, but it could be enough time to get the crop planted depending on the weather. There will undoubtedly be yield loss and USDA will start to calculate the lost crop potential in its monthly updates next month. It seems unlikely now that lost Corn area will get planted to Soybeans as USDA is allowing cover crops to be harvested early in response to the lost Corn production. The trade is also worried about a permanent loss of demand from China due in part to the Swine Flu there and in other parts of Southeast Asia and the trade war with China. The US has been selling Soybeans almost everywhere else as US prices have been competitive, but the biggest buyer in the world will not buy from the US due to the increased trade tensions. Neither side seems ready to make a deal right now although Trump and Xi will meet this week at the G-20 meetings to try to get talks going again. The Brazilian Real has firmed again yesterday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 953 July. Support is at 897, 894, and 891 July, and resistance is at 917, 920, and 921 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 315.00, 314.00, and 312.00 July, and resistance is at 320.00, 324.00, and 327.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 2950 July. Support is at 2810, 2780, and 2750 July, with resistance at 2870, 2910, and 2940 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on reports of beneficial rains in some areas over the weekend. The Canadian Dollar was higher as the US Dollar Index moved lower. StatsCan will issue acreage updates on Wednesday and less Canola planted area is expected. There are reports that farmers are replanting crops and also talk of disease pressure. Some traders expect a sideways market until the crop prospects become more clear. Palm Oil was a little lower again on weaker demand as reported by the private services and ideas of strong production. September made new lows before showing a small recovery. The outside markets were lower. Overall the market is trying to develop a trading range near the lows. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 1.174 million tons, from 1.387 million last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 448.00 446.00, and 443.00 July. Support is at 451.00, 449.00, and 446.00 July, with resistance at 458.00, 460.00, and 462.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1920 and 1800 September. Support is at 2000, 1980, and 1950 September, with resistance at 2040, 2070, and 2080 September.

DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Monthly Crush – Jun 24
WINNIPEG–Crushing statistics of major oilseeds in Canada
for the month of May 2019, reported by Statistics Canada are as
follows:
Figures are in metric tons.
Year Ago 2018/19 2017/18
Canola Apr 2019 Apr 2018 To Date To Date
Seed crushed 815,509 765,216 7,707,176 7,688,637
Oil produced 354,617 343,755 3,355,321 3,429,136
Meal produced 457,464 424,894 4,313,470 4,264,533
Soybeans
Seed crushed 171,010 184,683 1,762,829 1,620,758
Oil produced 32,486 33,643 334,836 296,446
Meal produced 131,588 145,253 1,358,467 1,261,400
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation in all areas today, then drier. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +68 July +163 July +78 July +61 July +1 July
July +50 July +80 July +46 July
August +43 September +70 September +38 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
June
July 95 July
August 105 August -15 August

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 24
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, June 24 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Friday, June 21 (delayed due
to technical issues at source).
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 440.40 -13.00 July 2019 dn 2.40
Track Thunder Bay 460.10 -5.00 Nov 2019 dn 2.20
Track Vancouver 470.10 -5.20 Nov 2019 dn 2.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 497.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 497.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 500.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 515.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
July 502.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 502.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 505.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 520.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 470.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 372.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1,950 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 134 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1410)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 135,480 lots, or 4.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 3,402 3,468 3,402 3,468 3,346 3,421 75 12 600
Sep-19 3,450 3,484 3,442 3,472 3,433 3,462 29 119,440 127,394
Nov-19 3,431 3,484 3,431 3,478 3,434 3,450 16 28 122
Jan-20 3,455 3,477 3,443 3,468 3,440 3,460 20 13,618 47,864
Mar-20 – – – 3,447 3,429 3,447 18 0 38
May-20 3,529 3,555 3,523 3,545 3,522 3,540 18 2,382 21,880
Corn
Turnover: 605,316 lots, or 11.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,907 1,907 1,897 1,900 1,903 1,900 -3 7,838 68,662
Sep-19 1,952 1,957 1,944 1,949 1,952 1,949 -3 429,914 1,026,370
Nov-19 1,984 1,989 1,977 1,981 1,982 1,982 0 31,108 324,062
Jan-20 2,015 2,021 2,007 2,013 2,012 2,012 0 128,434 548,292
Mar-20 2,032 2,035 2,027 2,032 2,030 2,029 -1 208 2,398
May-20 2,070 2,079 2,064 2,070 2,068 2,069 1 7,814 74,886
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,463,140 lots, or 71.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 2,852 2,859 2,823 2,826 2,832 2,838 6 1,756 8,042
Aug-19 2,890 2,912 2,876 2,881 2,867 2,890 23 59,394 172,442
Sep-19 2,920 2,930 2,892 2,906 2,896 2,908 12 2,072,900 1,886,594
Nov-19 2,955 2,958 2,928 2,937 2,934 2,939 5 426 8,360
Dec-19 2,954 2,954 2,926 2,933 2,925 2,933 8 1,078 796
Jan-20 2,945 2,958 2,929 2,946 2,932 2,944 12 278,388 425,292
Mar-20 – – – 2,863 2,863 2,863 0 0 842
May-20 2,768 2,778 2,755 2,769 2,757 2,767 10 49,198 172,922
Palm Oil
Turnover: 522,558 lots, or 22.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 4,268 4,268 4,268 0 0 12
Aug-19 – – – 4,370 4,370 4,370 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,306 4,308 4,280 4,300 4,316 4,296 -20 470,858 704,486
Oct-19 4,342 4,398 4,342 4,398 4,420 4,370 -50 4 14
Nov-19 – – – 4,446 4,496 4,446 -50 0 22
Dec-19 – – – 4,340 4,388 4,340 -48 0 12
Jan-20 4,506 4,506 4,482 4,496 4,510 4,496 -14 50,552 160,444
Feb-20 4,444 4,520 4,444 4,520 4,584 4,482 -102 20 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,608 4,712 4,608 -104 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,598 4,702 4,598 -104 0 4
May-20 4,708 4,718 4,702 4,708 4,720 4,712 -8 1,124 9,796
Jun-20 – – – 4,722 4,722 4,722 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 266,180 lots, or 14.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,420 5,420 5,420 0 0 2
Aug-19 5,360 5,360 5,360 5,360 5,348 5,360 12 2 32
Sep-19 5,392 5,414 5,386 5,402 5,396 5,400 4 227,954 723,624
Nov-19 – – – 5,500 5,500 5,500 0 0 2
Dec-19 5,558 5,570 5,416 5,570 5,636 5,506 -130 28 18
Jan-20 5,548 5,572 5,544 5,562 5,560 5,560 0 36,918 187,960
Mar-20 – – – 5,658 5,658 5,658 0 0 12
May-20 5,674 5,688 5,664 5,686 5,682 5,678 -4 1,278 17,508
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.