AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Trading Mostly 1 Cent Lower

Corn Futures come out of the weekend mostly 1 cent per bushel lower. Corn futures last week with a 4 1/2 cent loss after ending Friday mostly steady to higher. The USDA reported a private export sale of 245,872 MT of corn to Mexico on Friday. However, US export commitments YTD are still more than 12 MMT below year ago (more than 472 million bushels). Estimates for ending stocks ahead of WASDE’s report run from as low as 1.190 bbu, to 1.960 bbu and the average estimate of polled analysts is 1.902 bbu. The November forecast was 1.91 bbu. The Commitment of Traders Report showed that as of Tuesday spec traders were 85,137 contracts net short, following a 26.65% bearish shift of the position wk/wk.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market 2 to 3 Higher Overnight

Soybeans continue the rally from late last week with overnight gains of 2 to 3 cents per bushel. Soybeans were up 4 3/4 to 5 1/4 cents on Friday, resulting in a weekly gain of 12 3/4 cents. Soybean meal futures were $2.10/ton lower on Friday but still ended the week with a $6.20/ton gain. Soy oil futures are up 72 points, and 64 points higher wk/wk. Pre-WASDE estimates for U.S. soybean carryout range from 392 to 522 mbu with the average of those polled at 474 mbu. The Nov. WASDE had had ending stocks at 475 mbu. Stats Canada reported Canadian canola production of 18.649 MMT, down 8.3% from last year. The CFTC report from Friday afternoon showed managed money adding to their net short in beans for the second week in a row. Soybeans Spec funds sold a net 157,448 contracts over the last 4 weeks, which is the largest 4 week bear move on record. Meal spec traders were 43,910 contracts net short, which was the 3rd consecutive week expanding their position. As for bean oil, managed money was still net long, which brings their streak to 12 weeks of holding a long position on net.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market Mixed, With Spring Wheat up 2 Cents

Wheat futures are mixed to begin the week, with MPLS spring wheat mostly 2 cents higher, but the Chicago and KC contracts 1 to 2 lower . On Friday, wheat spot contracts (in deliveries) were up 1/2 cent in Chicago, down by 5 1/4 cents in KC and for MGE futures were 1 cent lower. Chicago wheat lost the most wk/wk with a 17 and 1/4 cent loss. Mar KC futures were down 16 1/2 cents on the week. MGE wheat was also lower on the week, but only by 1 3/4 cents. Traders on average are expecting a reduction in 2019/20 wheat ending stocks. Estimates for U.S. wheat carryover in the December 10 report range from 964 mbu to 1.05 bbu. The November WASDE had wheat ending stocks at 1.014 bbu. The CFTC report showed that Spec funds were net long Chicago wheat for the second week in a row; they nearly doubled their long wk/wk to 20,567 contracts. Kansas City managed money traders were net short once more, this time their 14,252 contract position was reduced wk/wk. As for MGE wheat futures, managed money expanded their net short to 22,562 contracts – a 9.46% increase. There were zero deliveries against Chicago December again overnight. The oldest long has moved up to November 8. There were 4 contracts put out against KC December to current date buyers.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market News and Commentary

Live cattle futures were up 20 to 37 cents on Friday. Feeder cattle futures finished the week 72 1/2 cents lower, but made gains of $0.65 to $1.00 on Friday. The 12/05 CME Feeder Cattle index was $144.49, dropping by 4 cents. The EU ratified the U.S.-E.U. Beef Access Agreement, bumping the TRQ on hormone free American beef from 13,000 MT/ year to 18,500 MT/year and set to be as high as 35,000 MT/ year by 2027. As of Tuesday, Spec traders were net long by 78,214 contracts for Live cattle futures. In the same Commitment of Traders Report, spec fund traders were shown net long feeder cattle futures as well. Their position was 1,371 contracts as of 12/03. Friday afternoon boxed beef prices were lower, but tightened the spread to 17.26. Choice boxes showed a $1.04 decrease, while select boxes were 82 cents lower. The USDA reported Nebraska dressed sales of $188.00 and WCB cash sales of $118-$119. KS live cattle sales were $119. USDA estimated the weekly FI cattle slaughter to be 679,000 head through Saturday. That would be 10,000 head above the same week last year. The YTD slaughter was 1.1% ahead of last year at 31.026 million head.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Unimpressed by China Tariff Move

Lean hog futures were mixed on Friday with Dec down by 45 cents; the other nearbys ended mixed. Lean hog futures were lower on the week by 62 1/2 cents. China indicated that it would suspend import tariffs on an unspecified quantity of pork, emphasizing purchases should be made on the open market. This was likely a hint to the US to reduce tariffs and take a more open market stance in return.The 12/04 CME Lean Hog Index was at $58.34, after an increase of 14 cents. In the weekly update from the CFTC, managed money was shown at 3,774 contracts net short for Lean Hog Futures. That is the second consecutive week the spec traders held a short position after a 36 consecutive week streak being net long. The pork carcass cutout value was up 72 cents and primal cuts were mostly higher. USDA’s national average base hog price for 12/05 was $0.08 lower to $46.59. USDA’s weekly total estimate for FI hog slaughter through Saturday was 2.799 million head. That brought the YTD slaughter to 120.679 million head.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Retreats from Friday Gains

Cotton futures start the week with 50 to 70 point overnight losses. Friday futures were up triple digits in pre weekend trading. Friday moves were enough to push cotton to wk/wk gains of 59 points in the March futures. The CFTC report showed that as of Tuesday managed money spec traders were 7,661 contracts net short. Spec trader open interest from was at an 8 week high, but the 75,777 contracts are still below the ~100,000 OI levels through the summer into September. The Seam reported 8,989 bales sold on Dec 5th, bringing the weekly total to 30,597 bales; last week the total was 35,384 bales sold. The 12/05 Cotlook A Index was regained all 65 points back up to 74.15. The weekly AWP was 55.97 cents/lb..

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com